Transcription

Mike Clay's 2021 NFL Projection GuideUpdated:6/6/2021Glossary:Page 2-33: Team ProjectionsPage 34-45: QB, RB, WR and TE projectionsPage 46-51: Category Leader projectionsPage 52: Projected standings, playoff teams and 2022 draft orderPage 53: Projected Strength of SchedulePage 54: Unit GradesPage 55-64: Positional Unit RanksPage 65: Current Coaching StaffsUnderstanding the graphics:*The numbers shown are projections for the 2021 NFL regular season (Weeks 1-18).*Some columns may not seem to be adding up correctly, but this is simply a product of rounding. The totals you see are correct.*Looking for sortable projections by position or category? Check out the projections tab inside the ESPN Fantasy game.*'Team stat rankings' is where each team is projected to finish in the category that is shown.*'Unit Grades' is not related to fantasy football and is an attempt at objective an ranking of each team at 10 key positions. The overall grades are weighted based on positional importance.The scale is 4.0 (best) to 0.1 (worst). A full rundown of Unit Grades can be found on page 51.*'Strength of Schedule Ranking' is based on 2021 rosters (not 2020 team record). '1' is easiest and '32' hardest. See the full list on page 50.*Note that prior to the official release of the NFL schedule (generally late April), the schedule shown includes the correct opponents, but the order is simulated.*Have a question or notice an error? Contact Mike Clay on Twitter @MikeClayNFL

2021 Arizona Cardinals ProjectionsPosQBQBQB TotalRBRBRBRBRB TotalWRWRWRWRWRWRWR TotalTETETETE TotalTotalRetKRKRKR TotalPRPR TotalOFFENSEPlayerKyler MurrayChris StrevelerChase EdmondsJames ConnerEno BenjaminJonathan WardDeAndre HopkinsA.J. GreenRondale MooreChristian KirkKeeSean JohnsonAndy IsabellaMaxx WilliamsDarrell DanielsRoss TravisRETURNSRondale MooreChase EdmondsChristian KirkKICKERMatt PraterPUNTERAndy 173173PASSINGComp Yds TD377 4069 2519212 1395 4281 395 4281 26INT12113000000000000000013TD0.10.10.20.20.2FGM FGA2732FG% XPM XPA XP%83% 42 45 94%Att65Avg In 2046.9 24Yds3036Sk37239000000000000000039RUSHINGAtt Yds TD126 727 93130130 740 9153 687 4166 710 731 129 19370359 1563 1200000000021400000002140000000000000491 2317 GPPRRec Yd TD PtsRk000 35530001451000 3695454 403 3 2032328 203 1 163337510338621701011991 675 4 410 261113 1373 7 292455 683 5 1536243 504 3 1097837 459 3 10580786119147447010168259 3152 19 688 53930 290 2724011 122 130584430108445 454 3 111 182395 4281 26 1577 1036PosDIDIDIDIDIDI TotalEDEDEDEDEDED TotalLBLBLBLBLBLB TotalCBCBCBCBCBCBCB TotalSSSSSS TotalTotalLTLGCRGRTDEFENSEPlayerSnap Tkl Sack INT FF RkJ.J. Watt931526.6 0.05Zach Allen602403.1 0.047Jordan Phillips449262.9 0.066Leki Fotu427251.9 0.087Rashard Lawrence219141.0 0.0 1282629 157 15.5 0.2 333Chandler Jones931488.6 0.219Markus Golden712486.6 0.234Devon Kennard285172.4 0.0 103Kylie Fitts8850.7 0.0 150Victor Dimukeje6640.4 0.0 1552081 122 18.6 0.4 461Zaven Collins964127 2.5 1.014Isaiah Simmons854105 2.3 0.730Jordan Hicks361450.7 0.378Tanner Vallejo99140.2 0.1 120Zeke Turner2230.0 0.0 1482300 29462.0 390Malcolm Butler1008920.1 2.72Byron Murphy986691.9 2.021Darqueze Dennard383330.2 0.997Robert Alford263160.0 0.6 127Marco Wilson131100.1 0.3 145Tay Gowan2220.0 0.0 1852793 22226.5 577Budda Baker1041 122 1.8 2.12Jalen Thompson876800.4 1.249Deionte Thompson219180.1 0.489Chris Banjo6660.1 0.1 120Shawn Williams4450.1 0.1 1282246 23123.8 38812049 1027 4513 2149OFFENSIVE LINED.J. HumphriesJustin PughRodney HudsonJustin MurrayKelvin BeachumWEEKLY SCORE PROJECTIONSWkOpp Loc TmOppWin Prob1TENV 24.826.046%2MINH 23.523.052%3JAXV 26.820.771%4LARV 23.826.142%5SFH 24.122.157%6CLVV 22.526.735%7HSTH 28.119.180%8GBH 24.125.246%9SFV 23.123.449%10CARH 25.918.974%11SEAV 24.326.343%120.00.013CHIV 22.620.757%14LARH 25.324.553%15DETV 26.521.069%16INDH 24.722.259%17DALV 25.427.044%18SEAH 25.924.954%Total42139855%PROJECTED WINS: 9.3 (NFL RANK: 12)Strength of Schedule Ranking:21UNITGRADESQB3.0RB0.6WR 3.0TE0.1OL2.5INT 3.1EDGE 2.3OB LB 2.1CB1.3S2.3Off Rk 10Def Rk 16Ovr Rk 11TEAM 7

2021 Atlanta Falcons ProjectionsPosQBQBQB TotalRBRBRBRBRBRB TotalWRWRWRWRWRWRWRWR TotalTETETETETE TotalTotalRetKRKR TotalPRPR TotalOFFENSEPlayerMatt RyanAJ McCarronMike DavisCordarrelle PattersonQadree OllisonJavian HawkinsKeith SmithCalvin RidleyRussell GageOlamide ZaccheausChristian BlakeFrank DarbyTajae SharpeChris RowlandKyle PittsHayden HurstJaeden GrahamLee SmithRETURNSCordarrelle PattersonChris RowlandKICKERYounghoe KooPUNTERSterling 626Yds900900212212PASSINGComp Yds TD387 4453 2520223 1407 4676 000000000407 4676 26INT11112000000000000000000012TD0.50.50.20.2FGM FGA2630FG% XPM XPA XP%88% 38 39 98%Att72Avg In 2044.6 26Yds3230Sk40242000000000000000000042RUSHINGAtt Yds TD29 113 114030 117 2213 835 663 286 275 311 346 189 1290400 1630 12423021200000000000000006350000000000000000436 1783 IVINGPPRRec Yd TD PtsRk000 270150001355000 2837040 269 1 1932518 161 18160753061655350368243701012073 556 2 382 35295 1381 8 282564 691 4 1575931 422 2839016 184 1401217920191434480101640001194217 2818 15 593 77670 809 5 183640 426 3 100284460108122105106116 1302 9 298 221407 4676 26 1557 1419PosDIDIDIDIDIDIDI TotalEDEDEDEDEDED TotalLBLBLBLBLB TotalCBCBCBCBCBCBCB TotalSSSSS TotalTotalLTLGCRGRTDEFENSEPlayerSnapGrady Jarrett870Tyeler Davison544John Cominsky457Marlon Davidson250Jonathan Bullard109Ta'Quon Graham872318Dante Fowler Jr.729Steven Means598Barkevious Mingo381Jacob Tuioti-Mariner218Adetokunbo Ogundeji2072133Deion Jones1034Foye Oluokun958Mykal Walker163Dorian Etheridge222176A.J. Terrell1034Isaiah Oliver870Kendall Sheffield740Fabian Moreau152Darren Hall141Avery Williams1093047Duron Harmon979Richie Grant718Erik Harris479Jaylinn Hawkins120229611969OFFENSIVE LINEJake MatthewsJalen MayfieldMatt HennessyChris LindstromKaleb 010.21.00.20.1240INT FF Rk0.140.1610.0720.0 1210.0 1510.0 1580.3 5670.3380.1510.2910.1 1080.1 1200.8 4081.3200.980.1 1030.0 1472.3 2781.951.6311.1620.3 1390.3 1400.2 1515.5 5281.4591.8551.0720.3 1034.5 28913 2070WEEKLY SCORE PROJECTIONSWkOpp Loc TmOppWin Prob1PHIH 24.022.356%2TBV 19.728.421%3NYGV 21.625.038%4WAS H 20.323.738%5NYJH 23.922.057%60.00.07MIAV 22.224.442%8CARH 23.421.258%9NOV 20.925.235%10DALV 23.229.229%11NEH 20.922.544%12JAXV 24.123.751%13TBH 20.327.625%14CARV 22.422.450%15SFV 20.625.732%16DETH 25.822.163%17BUFV 20.827.427%18NOH 22.223.745%Total37641742%PROJECTED WINS: 7.1 (NFL RANK: 23)Strength of Schedule Ranking:5UNITGRADESQB2.4RB0.3WR 1.1TE3.4OL0.6INT 2.4EDGE 0.1OB LB 3.4CB0.9S0.9Off Rk 21Def Rk 30Ovr Rk 27TEAM ST20

2021 Baltimore Ravens ProjectionsPosQBQBQB TotalRBRBRBRBRBRBRB TotalWRWRWRWRWRWRWR TotalTETETETETE TotalTotalRetKRKR TotalPRPR TotalOFFENSEPlayerLamar JacksonTrace McSorleyJ.K. DobbinsGus EdwardsJustice HillPatrick RicardBen MasonTy WilliamsMarquise BrownRashod BatemanSammy WatkinsDevin DuvernayMiles BoykinTylan WallaceMark AndrewsNick BoyleJosh OliverEric TomlinsonRETURNSDevin DuvernayDevin DuvernayKICKERJustin TuckerPUNTERSam 21821212212PASSINGComp Yds TD289 3337 2622248 2311 3585 000000000311 3585 28INT11112000000000000000000012TD0.60.60.20.2FGM FGA2933FG% XPM XPA XP%87% 46 47 97%Att62Avg In 2045.6 27Yds2838Sk38341000000000000000000041RUSHINGAtt Yds TD153 869 66270159 895 6217 1010 9130 598 419 8310000005200372 1711 14213000000000021500005280000000000000000536 2634 VINGRec Yd00000032 24511 877547563280061 47064 87051 65725 31310 109676339158 206469 83417 15055121793 1051311 3585PPRTD PtsRk0 3315020440 351491 219210 1085002710001411008133031403 379 5546 191445 147662671011291321191440917915 462 6668 200424251013750411210 259 24228 1451 1511PosDIDIDIDIDIDIDI TotalEDEDEDEDEDED TotalLBLBLBLBLBLB TotalCBCBCBCBCBCBCBCB TotalSSSSS TotalTotalLTLGCRGRTDEFENSEPlayerSnapDerek Wolfe680Calais Campbell605Brandon J. Williams486Justin Madubuike378Justin Ellis162Broderick Washington Jr.652376Tyus Bowser594Pernell McPhee540Odafe Oweh518Jaylon Ferguson432Daelin Hayes1302214Patrick Queen918L.J. Fort421Malik Harrison389Chris Board130Kristian Welch321890Marlon Humphrey1026Marcus Peters972Tavon Young486Jimmy Smith432Anthony Averett162Brandon Stephens86Shaun Wade223186Chuck Clark1026DeShon Elliott1026Anthony Levine108Jordan Richards54221411881OFFENSIVE LINERonnie StanleyBen ClevelandBradley BozemanKevin ZeitlerAlejandro .20.00.00.031.61.30.30.0339INT FF Rk0.1310.1230.0700.0920.0 1430.0 1700.2 5290.5560.2550.2600.1730.0 1441.1 3880.5280.4620.3730.1 1090.0 1441.3 4162.412.0350.9900.4 1090.5 1340.2 1570.0 1866.5 7121.4231.4350.4 1040.1 1233.3 28512 2330WEEKLY SCORE PROJECTIONSWkOpp Loc TmOppWin Prob1LVV 27.222.068%2KCH 28.226.158%3DETV 28.319.779%4DENV 23.920.064%5INDH 26.521.468%6LACH 28.221.673%7CINH 28.820.877%80.00.09MINH 25.422.261%10MIAV 26.121.466%11CHIV 24.519.468%12CLVH 25.424.653%13PITV 23.421.856%14CLVV 23.925.644%15GBH 26.024.057%16CINV 27.121.669%17LARH 27.123.363%18PITH 24.820.565%Total44537664%PROJECTED WINS: 10.9 (NFL RANK: 3)Strength of Schedule Ranking:24UNITGRADESQB3.3RB1.9WR 1.3TE3.1OL3.4INT 3.4EDGE 0.8OB LB 1.0CB4.0S1.8Off Rk 7Def Rk 10Ovr Rk 4TEAM ST6

2021 Buffalo Bills ProjectionsPosQBQBQB TotalRBRBRBRBRBRB TotalWRWRWRWRWRWRWRWR TotalTETETETE TotalTotalRetKRKR TotalPRPR TotalOFFENSEPlayerJosh AllenMitchell TrubiskyDevin SingletaryZack MossMatt BreidaAntonio WilliamsTaiwan JonesStefon DiggsCole BeasleyGabriel DavisEmmanuel SandersIsaiah McKenzieIsaiah HodginsBrandon PowellDawson KnoxJacob HollisterTommy SweeneyRETURNSTaiwan JonesBrandon PowellKICKERTyler BassPUNTERMatt 9709217217PASSINGComp Yds TD398 4561 3221227 2420 4787 000000420 4787 33INT1211300000000000000000013TD0.20.20.20.2FGM FGA2632FG% XPM XPA XP%83% 43 46 93%Att64Avg In 2044.9 24Yds2856Sk3924100000000000000000041RUSHINGAtt Yds TD103 526 76290108 555 8119 530 2127 540 425 115 07310000279 1216 7211000000000013 62000000014 731000000000000401 1844 INGPPRRec Yd TD PtsRk000 37510001846000 3934737 276 1 1403928 217 1 136435380231020005138000114670 530 3 304 468111 1417 9 305373 833 5 1834643 645 5 1406743 497 4 1147621 213 2621064470101650001196294 3651 24 815 65939 441 5 1112512 119 131564460117856 606 6 153 159420 4787 33 1665 1333DEFENSEPosDIDIDIDIDIDIDI TotalEDEDEDEDEDEDED TotalLBLBLBLBLBLB TotalCBCBCBCBCBCBCB TotalSSSSS TotalTotalLTLGCRGRTPlayerEd OliverStar LotuleleiHarrison PhillipsVernon ButlerEfe ObadaJustin ZimmerJerry HughesMario AddisonAJ EpenesaGregory RousseauCarlos BashamDarryl Johnson Jr.Tremaine EdmundsMatt MilanoA.J. KleinTyrell AdamsTyler MatakevichTre'Davious WhiteTaron JohnsonLevi WallaceDane JacksonRachad WildgooseSiran NealJordan PoyerMicah HydeJaquan JohnsonDamar HamlinOFFENSIVE LINEDion DawkinsCody FordMitch MorseJon FelicianoDaryl WilliamsSnap Tkl Sack INT FF Rk598393.3 0.040457211.5 0.0 103435301.9 0.086413242.0 0.183272162.4 0.0 1095440.3 0.0 1692229 134 11.4 0.2 590620316.6 0.147522294.8 0.163402233.5 0.187370233.2 0.186261162.0 0.1 1042210.2 0.0 1752196 123 20.3 0.5 562979130 1.6 1.022924117 3.4 1.616152170.5 0.1 106120180.2 0.1 1103340.1 0.0 1422207 28762.8 3961033760.6 2.39816822.0 1.68761660.2 1.642359270.1 1.0 1057660.0 0.2 1622220.0 0.0 1803066 25936.7 5061033 116 1.3 1.541033830.4 1.83910990.1 0.2 1118780.0 0.1 1142262 21623.6 26811961 1019 4214 2322WEEKLY SCORE PROJECTIONSWkOpp Loc TmOppWin Prob1PITH 23.422.155%2MIAV 25.122.161%3WAS H 23.421.856%4HSTH 28.519.481%5KCV 25.828.241%6TENV 25.326.048%70.00.08MIAH 25.821.864%9JAXV 26.921.370%10NYJV 26.819.675%11INDH 25.222.161%12NOV 23.822.854%13NEH 24.020.164%14TBV 22.527.034%15CARH 26.318.876%16NEV 22.621.454%17ATLH 27.420.873%18NYJH 27.418.680%Total43037461%PROJECTED WINS: 10.4 (NFL RANK: 5)Strength of Schedule Ranking:2UNITGRADESQB3.4RB0.5WR 3.3TE0.6OL1.6INT 0.4EDGE 1.9OB LB 2.5CB2.8S3.8Off Rk 9Def Rk 15Ovr Rk 8TEAM shingAtt29Yds23TD21DefenseTackles10Sack8INT6D/ST5

2021 Carolina Panthers ProjectionsPosQBQBQB TotalRBRBRBRBRBRB TotalWRWRWRWRWRWRWR TotalTETETETE TotalTotalRetKRKR TotalPRPR TotalOFFENSEPlayerSam DarnoldP.J. WalkerChristian McCaffreyChuba HubbardRodney SmithReggie BonnafonTrenton CannonDJ MooreRobby AndersonTerrace Marshall Jr.David MooreKeith KirkwoodShi SmithDan ArnoldIan ThomasTommy TrembleRETURNSTrenton CannonDavid MooreKICKERJoey SlyePUNTERJoseph 680216216PASSINGComp Yds TD334 3863 1743508 2377 4371 000377 4371 18INT142160000000000000000016TD0.20.20.20.2FGM FGA2732FG% XPM XPA XP%83% 32 34 93%Att75Avg In 2045.7 30Yds3436Sk425460000000000000000046RUSHINGAtt Yds TD53 187 3310055 198 3250 1066 10